Understanding A Post-War Iraq
Unified Iraq Could Stabilise The Middle-East
- Originally written and posted to Jacked in with Jack Kerley -
Historically, nations and governments around the world have funded militias to do their dirty work for them, they’re called proxies, and empires love them.
Death squads, black operators, mercenaries, various words used to describe clandestine operations around the world. The United States prefers to use highly trained special forces like the green berets to train local friendly forces or Delta Force and the Seals for deployment behind enemy lines to execute extrajudicial assassinations. That all changed after 9/11 when the US started outsourcing clandestine operations to proxy groups.
And the U.S. isn’t unique to this prospect, proxy wars have been used by governments and colonial powers for centuries. These wars are used to avoid larger conflicts but in the time of nuclear proliferation, proxies are more important to powers than ever before.
On a smaller scale, proxies are notoriously used by regimes like Iran who, by employ paramilitary groups, in order to dance around statements and say technically we didn’t directly attack anyone. Which is, by all accounts, factual.
Iran’s favourite paramilitary is Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces or PMF, an umbrella group of over 60 armed paramilitaries in the region. The PMF consists of mostly Shiite militia’s however, it is not exclusive to Shiites. Some Christian groups and even some Yazidi groups are affiliated with the PMF. Strange considering the Yazidi are indigenous to Kurdistan and associated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK.
Often non-PMF groups will claim to be PMF, or PMF associated militia’s will claim to be a lesser known group depending on the level of attack. This is all a means to carry out indirect terrorist attacks at the behest of the Iranian regime.
To that end, it’s no surprise to see Kurds blaming Iran while missiles rained down on the Kurdish capital city of Erbil on the morning of March 13th.
This time, it wasn’t the PMF taking claim but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iranian forces happily took direct credit for the attack and were congratulated for it by the government which, understandably, escalated tensions between Iraqi and Iranian forces.
All while the world is distracted by the Russo-Ukraine War.
Considering this was a direct attack from Iran and not a PMF affiliated group the response, or lack thereof, from the Biden administration is a little bit curious. Even more so when you look at what Biden and Iran are in the middle of.
As time runs out, Biden appears to becoming more and more desperate to close the new Iran deal following President Donald Trump pulling out of the last one. The desperation is sparking fears that Iran will be given too much space to proliferate nuclear weapons.
Oh and, Biden’s pact with Iran gives them free reign to fund proxy militia’s with no restrictions on acquisition ballistic missiles. More Russian influence, more funding of proxies and more ballistic missiles, all to go along with the shiny new $10bn dollar deal for Nuclear Power plants just made between Russia and Iran.
So,
Who’s To Blame
It’s really easy to take the “it’s America’s fault” path but it is ultimately an oversimplification of an extremely complex situation and plays into the hands of Iranian propagandists, making their job easier.
Reducing it down to wars for oil is also a mistake that even we have made. All before we became more aware of the complex geo-politics of the Middle-East, to which I’m not even 10 per cent of the way to understanding.
For the Iranian regime, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and America controlling Iraqi oil would be a strategic disaster and essentially end whatever conflict exists. The U.S. petrodollar, really is, far from the only struggle between powers in this region.
These conflicts, ever since the U.S. entered the fray, have been power games between major world players with the people of the region suffering while it happens, but it wasn’t the start. The region had plenty of conflict during the Capitalism V. Communism proxy war bullshit spurred on by the cold war.
When you take a step back and look at the bigger picture you can see a connection between the current Russo-Ukraine war and the Iraqi/Syrian conflicts. Russia and Iran are as strategically linked as the KSA and America are. Keep in mind that this is, by no means, an alliance based on values, these alliances are based on pure strategy.
Russia’s only access to the Mediterranean lies with Syria, Crimea gives Russia access to the Black Sea and is most likely the reason Putin took the opportunity in 2014 to annex Crimea. Could have something to do with the Black Sea Fleet and her safety or it could be trade or even shale gas under the western side of Crimea.
Looking at old trade maps helps to understand what Russia’s real motives for the invasions of Georgia and Ukraine really were and ultimately, why Iran and Syria are kicking up such a massive stink trying to wrestle with the KSA and Israel for primacy in the region.
If Georgia and Ukraine were to join NATO, that would make the Black Sea either completely inaccessible to Russia bar a small corridor or it reduces Russia to a dog on a leash resorting to negotiations with NATO to leave the Black Sea considering Turkey controls the only entry and exit point for Russia’s fleet.
Ultimately, it would cut Russia off from Syria and essentially quell Assad’s ambitions permanently, if America’s track record is anything to go by. However, Syria would feel this more than Russia, due to large amounts of support coming from both Iran and Russia. Iraq stands to benefit most as Syria being cut off, basically kneecaps half of the PMF’s funding.
Iraqi diplomacy, for the most part, has performed extremely well to excise foreign influence from the nation. This includes everything from paramilitary groups to even al-Qaeda. Despite this, the IRGC attack on Erbil shouldn’t surprise you if you have been paying attention.
The PMF
The ex-Prime Minister of Iraq, Nuri al-Maliki, who was installed by the Bush administration, is often considered the “godfather” of the PMF. While in office he was gaining favour with both the Americans and Iranians.
Maliki supported the PMF, and Iran’s funding of it while offering up the Iraqi Army to aid the U.S. imperial force in fighting whatever target America deemed worthy that month. He was, and is, a snake that clearly has no allegiance to the Iraqi people.
From the time President Barack Obama withdrew forces from Iraq until 2018, and more so, 2021, Iranian influence flowed through Iraq. While Iraqi’s were busy fighting al-Qaeda and Daesh, Iran flooded money into PMF groups and Maliki was right there to ensure that everything went smoothly. He scratched Iran’s back and they scratched his.
One of the most consequential alleged PMF attacks occurred when 14 rockets were fired at Erbil killing a foreign contractor and injuring an American service member in early 2021. This attack was claimed by a group called Saraya Awliya al-Dam, a group allegedly affiliated with the PMF.
According to the Washington institute, Saraya Awliya al-Dam became active in 2020, just eight months after the extra judicial assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds force, an Iranian special forces outfit, by the Trump administration.
Quds are the IRGC intelligence outfit, they partake in similar activities to the CIA and the U.S. special forces. Training militia’s as proxy groups, supplying terrorists etc. however, Quds tactics are obviously going to differ from the CIA and Special Forces.
Attacks like this, from groups like this happen often enough to be an issue but when it comes to truly nailing down who’s responsible it becomes tough. The PMF is too vague, especially with a reasonable amount of new smaller pro-Iran groups popping up claiming rocket attacks around Iraq.
The issue comes when disinformation is put out there that uses either the Israeli’s or the Kurdish as scapegoats resulting in a game of nothing but hearsay.
Social media tends to erupt with musings of “classic PKK tactics” or blaming Mossad, foolish when you think about the fact that Israel has fighter bombers and cruise missiles. They constantly hit Syria, in fact, they killed 2 Iranian fighters in early March, four days before the Erbil attack.
Iraqi Democracy And The De-Escalation Of Violence
Iraq’s election in Oct. 2021 saw the Al-Fateh alliance, lead by Maliki and supportive of Iran and the PMF, crushed in favour of the Sadrist Movement lead by Shiite firebrand cleric and militia leader, Muqtada al-Sadr.
Sadr is infamously anti-imperialist having called for jihad, an Islamic struggle, against the coalition’s occupation of Iraq and the removal of Maliki and the puppet government. Had an election been rigged for an American puppet, or in favour of an Iranian puppet, Sadr would have called for a jihad like he did against Maliki.
Iran’s loss of influence in the Iraqi government being put down to the ‘muricans done did it is foolish for one simple reason. Iraqi’s understand that, whether it’s Iran, America, al-Qaeda or any other force, the threat is the same. The subjugation and destruction of Iraq and its people, warped to the visions of whoever is subjugating.
Iraq appears to want a state where Iraqi’s determine how Iraq functions, not an imperial force and Sadr seems to fill that want.
During his leadership of the Mahdi Army, Sadr’s forces killed a significant number of American soldiers while fighting against the coalitions occupation, he’s killed far more coalition forces than al-Qaeda ever did. Sadr and the Mahdi Army fought off not only the US, al-Qaeda and Iraqi security forces but Daesh too.
Decisively so.
Between the defeat of al-Qaeda and the formation of Daesh, Sadr had dissolved the Mahdi Army and launched a political party called the “Sadrist Movement.” When Daesh formed, the MA had become the Peace Companies and have been compared to that of the IRA in both tactics and politics. PC is technically under the umbrella of PMF however, their force is all but depleted if reports are to be believed.
Sadr withdrew his support from the sitting government and did not pledge to support the elected government from Iraq’s 2021 election. “Do not sell your homeland [to the corrupt] at any price, it is more valuable than anything else,” Sadr said in a televised speech. Sadr is also notorious for his charitable nature which no doubt aids his popularity among Iraqi’s where, like the west, property owners thrive while the rest suffer.
Sadr is possibly the best chance that Iraq has at stability in the region providing that Sadr gets to move forward with his attempts to counter Iran’s influence in the country with the UAE and Saudi crown.
Sadr would have preferred America not to warp their invasion into an occupation and subsequently attempt to turn Iraq into a proxy state of the United States. Due to the neo-liberal war machine that runs the United States that, of course, did happen and forced Sadr’s hand.
Busy fighting the U.S. Sadr lapsed on Iran. America would have been better off retreating following the “Mission Accomplished” speech on the USS Abraham Lincoln and letting someone like Sadr fight Iran.
Letting Sadr fight Iran right now is what is tactically responsible for the United States and Biden would be a fool to let this opportunity slide by him.
Where Iraq will end up now is anybody’s guess but it appears that there’s a chance we could see the middle east stabilise in the near future.